Key Points
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is testing how much investors are willing to pay for a company that controls valuable space infrastructure.
SpaceX currently trades at a very rich valuation of nearly 82 times trailing 12-month sales. The stock’s sharp rise after the IPO, followed by a pullback, suggests investors are still trying to decide how much of SpaceX’s long-term opportunity is already reflected in its valuation.
Starlink and Starship are the key growth catalysts
Starlink satellite internet is the clearest reason for SpaceX’s premium valuation. The company’s connectivity business, driven mainly by Starlink, generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025. Starlink also had about 10.3 million users across 9,600 satellites at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Unlike launch sales, which can be lumpy, Starlink gives SpaceX a profitable recurring revenue engine, global reach, and a direct customer relationship.
SpaceX’s next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, is expected to carry 100 metric tons to orbit. This will give the company far greater capacity to launch larger Starlink satellites, expanding the network faster and at lower cost. The larger next-generation Starlink satellites are designed to support more than 10 times the internet download capacity of the smaller V2 satellites SpaceX currently launches on its Falcon 9 rocket system.
What could $1,000 become by 2031?
SpaceX is also spending heavily on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. The company’s AI business posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion, accounting for nearly 61% of its $20.7 billion in capital spending in 2025.
So, for SpaceX to justify its premium valuation, Starlink must keep growing, Starship must make satellite deployment cheaper, and AI infrastructure must eventually become profitable.
Since 2023, Nvidia‘s price-to-sales ratio has stayed mostly above 20 times. SpaceX is not Nvidia, but if investors keep viewing it as a leader in low-Earth-orbit connectivity and launch infrastructure, 18 to 25 times sales multiple could be a defensible five-year estimate.
Analysts expect SpaceX to generate about $224.8 billion of revenue in 2031. This may prove conservative, considering that CEO Elon Musk expects revenue to reach $1 trillion by 2031. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect SpaceX’s revenue to be $470 billion and $330 billion, respectively, in 2030.
If SpaceX reaches the 2031 revenue estimate and trades at around 11 times sales, its market capitalization would be around $2.47 trillion. This cautious valuation is close to Rocket Lab‘s sales multiple at the end of 2023, before investor enthusiasm for vertically integrated space platforms pushed the stock much higher.
Based on roughly 13.1 billion shares outstanding, that would imply a share price near $188, turning a $1,000 investment at about $170.80 per share (as of June 30, 2026) into roughly $1,100. At 18 times sales, SpaceX would be valued at about $4.05 trillion, implying a share price near $307 and a $1,000 investment value of roughly $1,797. At 25 times sales, SpaceX would be worth about $5.62 trillion, implying a share price near $427 and a $1,000 investment value of roughly $2,499.
Hence, $1,000 invested in SpaceX today could grow to about $1,100 to $2,499, depending on whether investors apply a cautious premium valuation or a category-leader multiple.
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Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group, Nvidia, and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
