Key Points
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Dan Ives is one of Wall Street’s most well-known tech analysts.
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Ives is known for being extremely bullish on tech and artificial intelligence companies.
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Ives is bullish on SpaceX, but I would have expected more conviction from one of Wall Street’s strongest AI bulls.
- 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›
If you’re bullish on the future of the space economy and artificial intelligence (AI), then you are likely incredibly excited about Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX), which recently went public and has already become one of the largest stocks in the market, trading at a roughly $2.13 trillion market cap (as of July 3).
While most believe SpaceX is bound to do great things, the high valuation has made it a battleground stock, with some analysts and institutional traders claiming this is just the beginning, and others suggesting SpaceX has gotten ahead of its skis.
Recently, veteran Wall Street analyst Dan Ives, typically quite bullish on tech and artificial intelligence, weighed in on the stock. Here’s what he thinks a $17,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth over the next 12 months.
Ives offered less hype than expected on SpaceX
Ives, formerly with Wedbush Securities, recently initiated coverage of SpaceX with an outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying about 17.3% upside from current levels. Assuming this comes to fruition, a $16,500 investment could be worth close to $20,000 in one year’s time, the typical time horizon used by Wall Street analysts.
In his initiation note, Ives wrote that SpaceX is “one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market” and “well-positioned to become a major hyperscaler with its vertically integrated platform across connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure.”
Ives views SpaceX’s low-Earth-orbit satellite internet service, Starlink, as the profit engine with a long runway ahead, given that the service still controls less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market.
Thus far, Starlink has been the best financial performer of SpaceX’s three divisions, generating an operating profit of $4.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of nearly $7.2 billion in 2025.
Ives views the launch business as the engine that makes pretty much everything at the company possible, and is most excited about the AI division, which comprises the social media platform X, the digital AI intelligence platform Grok, multiple data centers, and a future potential terafab facility.
SpaceX has already signed massive data center deals with large AI players like Anthropic and Alphabet, which are expected to dramatically ramp revenue this year.
While the deals can be canceled with just three months’ notice, Ives still believes SpaceX has an advantage over other data center players because it can build data centers faster and more cheaply than competitors.
Ives’ upside on SpaceX is lacking
In his initiation note, Ives acknowledged that the bull case for SpaceX largely depends on Starship, SpaceX’s fully reusable heavy-lift launch rocket that is not yet operational.
SpaceX needs Starship if it wants to build orbital data centers, which is likely already partly baked into the company’s valuation. Starship has conducted 12 test flights but has not yet worked as designed, according to Ives, and could also face regulatory pressure.
While Ives has issued a solid price target on SpaceX and a 17% return in one year is nothing to sniff at, I find his upside case lacking compared to his previous calls on other hyperscalers.
If you are a bull, it is a bit concerning that Ives doesn’t have a higher price target, given that he is considered one of the most bullish analysts on the Street for AI and tech.
Ives also points out how crucial Starship is to SpaceX’s thesis, and I agree. In its registration statement, the company said it could begin deploying orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028.
But this seems like an incredibly fast timeline, especially given where Starship is. Obviously, what SpaceX and Founder Elon Musk are trying to accomplish is extraordinary, so long-term investors may not mind the longer timeline.
However, the fact that the company already trades at such a high valuation suggests that Starship’s success and orbital data centers are all but guaranteed, when they aren’t, making the risk-reward proposition on the stock unfavorable right now, in my opinion.
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Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
