Key Points
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SpaceX’s rapid inclusion in Nasdaq-100 can create a new benchmark for mega IPOs.
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OpenAI and Anthropic could test how quickly AI giants enter passive portfolios.
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Investors still need to separate index inclusion from business quality and valuation risk.
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Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) joins the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, less than a month after going public. J.P. Morgan, part of JPMorgan Chase, estimates the move could create about $4.3 billion in passive buying by funds tied to the index.
If OpenAI and Anthropic go public at valuations even close to expected, could they also quickly enter index funds, including the S&P 500? Let’s find out.
SpaceX shows the fast path into index funds
The biggest catalyst is Nasdaq’s new fast-entry rule. Under the updated Nasdaq-100 methodology, the largest new listings can be reviewed on their seventh trading day if their full market value ranks among the top 40 current Nasdaq-100 companies. The companies also need to meet Nasdaq‘s eligibility rules and have enough trading liquidity.
Nasdaq may consider both listed and unlisted shares when determining eligibility and ranking, but the company’s actual weight in the index is based only on listed shares. So OpenAI and Anthropic could go public at high valuations, but their impact on the index would depend on how many shares are actually listed for trading, not just on their total market value.
The Nasdaq-100 includes large non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. So OpenAI or Anthropic would probably need a Nasdaq listing to follow SpaceX’s clearest fast-entry route.
Although SpaceX’s fast index entry can be a short-term growth catalyst for the stock, it does not automatically make the stock safer or cheaper. Index funds buy stocks because they meet index rules, not because the business is risk-free or attractively valued.
Upcoming IPOs
According to Reuters, OpenAI has already filed confidentially for its IPO and is targeting a valuation close to $1 trillion. OpenAI already has massive scale, with more than 900 million weekly ChatGPT users, more than 50 million paying consumers, and about $2 billion in monthly revenue (as of March 2026). However, the company is reportedly not expected to be profitable until 2030. Hence, although OpenAI’s scale could quickly attract index attention, its long profitability timeline may keep valuation risk high.
Anthropic is also moving toward the public market. The company said it has confidentially filed its IPO paperwork. It also raised $65 billion in new funding, giving it a valuation of $965 billion in May 2026. A valuation that large could make Anthropic important to broad-market indexes soon after listing. The funding also shows how much money frontier AI companies need to keep expanding their computing capacity.
Hence, a public OpenAI or Anthropic would give index investors direct exposure to frontier AI model companies, not just the infrastructure companies powering them.
Inclusion in the S&P 500 can be harder
The biggest risk is assuming that a company’s quick index inclusion can also translate into quick inclusion in the S&P 500. However, S&P Dow Jones Indices, part of S&P Global, recently decided not to loosen its main eligibility rules for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600. So newly public companies will still need at least 12 months of trading history before they can be considered for inclusion in these indexes. They also need to pass S&P’s profitability test, which usually requires positive GAAP net income in the latest quarter and over the past four quarters combined.
OpenAI still has a long road to profitability. Anthropic’s heavy computing needs could also make S&P’s profitability screen a harder hurdle.
However, S&P Dow Jones Indices changed eligibility rules for the S&P Total Market Index, S&P Completion Index, and Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index. Eligible IPOs can still get fast-track entry into some indexes if they meet the updated float and other requirements. So OpenAI and Anthropic could enter these market indexes soon after going public.
Regulation challenges are also important for investors. According to Reuters, OpenAI seems to be considering giving a 5% stake to the U.S. government. Anthropic also had to disable access to its top-tier models after a U.S. government order limiting foreign access. While these challenges may not prevent either company from entering certain indexes after listing, they may negatively affect IPO timing, valuation, revenue visibility, and post-listing volatility.
SpaceX shows that mega IPOs can quickly enter some index funds, especially through Nasdaq-linked and broad-market products. Investors should focus not only on whether these companies enter indexes, but also on which indexes they enter, how much weight they receive, and whether the businesses can justify their valuations after the first wave of passive buying.
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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase and S&P Global. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
