Key Points
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost $1.8 billion in the week ending June 26, the second-worst weekly outflow since these products launched in January 2024, then lost another $231 million on June 29, making for $2 billion of ETF share redemptions in a fortnight, and a total of around $4 billion in outflows for the month of June.
For holders of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) or the coin, it’s natural to be thinking about whether to bail after seeing big outflows like this. Is it time to call it a day and sell Bitcoin?
Look at who is selling
Publicly available Bitcoin ETF flow data doesn’t explicitly break out sellers by account type. But, analysts and insiders discussing the space have, through the last six weeks of outflows, been consistent in stating that institutional investors have largely stayed put and not sold. Similarly, major financial institutions that recently purchased the ETFs or the coin itself, to great fanfare, would need to report their sales, and that hasn’t happened (at least not yet). Furthermore, a meaningful share of the selling activity also likely reflects short-term trades unwinding rather than conviction selling.
After removing those groups of Bitcoin ETF holders, retail investors with retirement and brokerage accounts are the largest group likely to be marginal sellers right now. Those investors piled into Bitcoin ETFs as soon as brokerages added them, only to meet crypto volatility head-on. The coin’s 52% drawdown from its all-time high in early October 2025 is more than enough to push these less-committed investors to sell at a loss.
In other words, the ETF capitulation is concentrated in the cohort that’s least equipped to ride out a deep correction. The institutional money is still around, and it isn’t behaving skittishly.
This drawdown isn’t even that big
The iShares Bitcoin Trust alone has absorbed roughly $62 billion in cumulative inflows since launch, meaning $4 billion in redemptions isn’t a major erosion of its base of capital. Across the spot Bitcoin ETF complex, cumulative net inflows since their launch remain above $50 billion even after June’s record monthly outflow.
Bitcoin’s price is in the deep sell-off territory where prior market cycles rewarded patient buyers. So, this is no time to fold, and it’s probably a smart idea to keep accumulating it to take advantage of the coin’s low price. Ignore the weekly flow data until the sell-off is over, perhaps in a quarter or so, and let other investors capitulate.
The thesis for buying Bitcoin and holding it forever breaks down only if capital outflows accelerate and long-term holders are unwilling to buy the dip, which would likely happen only if something changes about the coin’s fundamentals. Given that changing anything about Bitcoin itself is very difficult, there’s not much to worry about in the big scheme of things right now.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
